Before It's News | Popular Health
Max Alert! H7N9 In US By Valentines Day!
The very interesting video below newly released from POTRBlog shares that H7N9 is expected to be in the US by Valentines Day due in large part that the data below shows that spikes of H7N9 in China are directly tied to paid Chinese National Holidays.
The H7N9 outbreak started last year as a result of Chinese New Year, and 2014's Chinese New Year appears headed for a much greater spike (especially in locations with low 2013 infection rates).
The current spike is from the Gregorian New Year Holiday, Jan 1 (one paid day off),
The next H7N9 spike will be from the 2014 Chinese New Year Holidays, January 31- February 6th (7 paid days off).
A very simple static parametric analysis indicates the rates of H7N9 rates of infection resulting from the Chinese New Year will initially be 7 times greater than what occurred as a result of the Jan 1st holiday. A dynamic analysis from a Discrete Event Simulation could give much greater insight into the epidemiology.
Obviously, this situation means a greatly increased risk that H7N9 will enter the United States as people return from celebrating the holiday in China. We expect that H7N9 will be in the United States by Valentine's Day.
The H7N9 outbreak started last year as a result of Chinese New Year, and 2014's Chinese New Year appears headed for a much greater spike (especially in locations with low 2013 infection rates).
The current spike is from the Gregorian New Year Holiday, Jan 1 (one paid day off),
The next H7N9 spike will be from the 2014 Chinese New Year Holidays, January 31- February 6th (7 paid days off).
A very simple static parametric analysis indicates the rates of H7N9 rates of infection resulting from the Chinese New Year will initially be 7 times greater than what occurred as a result of the Jan 1st holiday. A dynamic analysis from a Discrete Event Simulation could give much greater insight into the epidemiology.
Obviously, this situation means a greatly increased risk that H7N9 will enter the United States as people return from celebrating the holiday in China. We expect that H7N9 will be in the United States by Valentine's Day.
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